For the NFL, the bye week is usually a welcome break. It gives teams a chance to rest their injured players, go over game plans and Scouting film and in general make whatever adjustments are necessary to either right a troubled season up to this point or continue the success. It doesn’t really matter when it happens in the season, whether you have the off week in the fourth week or the tenth, every NFL team looks forward to the break.
On the other hand, for the fantasy football player, the start of the bye weeks signals the beginning of the long road that truly determines what your season will wind up being. For the next seven weeks being aware of the schedule can be the main thing that make or break your team. Although I haven’t kept a record of it, I would be willing to wager that every year I have played fantasy football, somebody in some league at some point forgets that there is an off week coming up and starts at least one player who is not playing.
This kind of oversight can derail a previously successful season. In addition to that, there are between 4-6 teams who do not play on every off week. While it doesn’t happen nearly as frequently, I have seen many times were an owner starts multiple players who are not playing that week!
Now, I am not talking about the guy who is 0-9 after nine weeks and 300 points out of first place who has given up on the season and just isn’t playing anymore. Everybody loves those players by the way, trust me. I’m talking about the team that is 5-1 and fighting for first place in points. On more than one occasion I have seen a team in this position inadvertently start a couple of players who are not playing because of the off week, lose their game by three points and it is that extra loss that keeps them out of the playoffs.
On top of that, there is a definite psychological effect to this kind of oversight. An owner that is committed to winning in their league who makes this kind of mistake, oftentimes find themselves unable to get past those missing points, or those extra losses. In this kind of situation, there’s no one to blame but yourself. You can’t point to the unexpected injury that shut down your superstar in the second quarter and, thereby giving you less points than you expected. You can’t point to the spunky underdog team who, for no reason other than to annoy you, plays defense unlike anything they have played all season long and shut down the high scoring offense, of which you happen to have two players on. No, in this situation the points you have lost, and possibly the game that you have lost falls squarely on your own shoulders.
It’s easy to think, well, it was a mistake, nothing I can do about it now, have to move on. But believe me, if you are truly invested in playing the game, if a draft day feels to you the same way Christmas feels to a kid, then at the end of the season if you are not in the playoffs or competing for the lead in overall points, and you look back in the reason for this is that oversight you made in week five, you will curse yourself.
All that being said, there’s a remarkably easy way to avoid the situation. Check the NFL schedule! It only takes a couple of seconds and most league software even has the off weeks for all of your players right there on your team page. It’s a pretty easy way to avoid a situation that can cause the demise of your season, and in some situations, wreck the fun of the game for other players as well.
And speaking of wrecking the fun of the game, I’m starting to think the NFL, and I’m speaking of the NFL as a self-aware being here, is out just to screw with me this season. In my picks for sleepers last week, I went with Felix Jones and Chris Wells. What happens? Felix Jones looks awesome… right up to the point where he gets hurt. And, despite the fact Arizona is playing an extremely strong pass defense in Indianapolis, their main threat at running back, the explosive rookie Wells gets two carries all day long. What kind of coaching is that? In the words of the ESPN game day crew “ C’mon man!”
At the other end, I did say to expect a big drop off in the production from Chris Johnson. He still put up over 90 yd., but no touchdowns. Overall, I would say that qualifies as a significant drop.
That means that so far this season, I’m only 1-4. But, as I said before, anything over a 500 record I would be happy with, and it’s still a long season. So, what about this week?
For my secondary players, I’m sticking entirely with the State of California. Darren McFadden plays for Oakland, and that’s bad enough for most people to keep him on the bench. But, he is the one guy with any real talent on offense, and he’s going up against Houston who is dead last in the league against the run. Also, Glen Coffee looked dynamic in the preseason, and now she gets a chance to carry the load with Gore being out the next couple of weeks. I’m expecting both guys to perform well.
For my guaranteed starter who I expect to underperform, I am going with a gut feeling on this one. Brandon Jacobs has been consistent all season. And he is going up against Kansas City. Jacobs owners have every reason to expect good numbers this week. But, strange things always happen in Kansas City, I just have a feeling Brandon disappoints this week.
Not a whole lot of movement in the power rankings this week, but what there is is fairly significant!
1. Team Eagles (3) – the Eagles leapfrog into the number one spot. They have been leading the league in scoring since the start of this season, but this week they convinced me that it was time for a change at the top. They lost their first game in an upset, but what impressed me was that they still managed to score 91 points despite Drew Brees only managing four points! When you can still manage to score nearly 100 points when you’re number one guy doesn’t perform, then you have the kind of team that can win it all
2. MM of M (2) – the Monkeys stay at number two for another week, but you know, monkeys and number two have a long history. The main reason is the injury to Frank Gore. The word is that he is expected to return after their bye week. How well can the Monkeys survive without their main guy? As with the Eagles, if you are a truly powerful team, you can score even when you’re number one guy doesn’t. If the Monkeys can keep up this scoring pace without Frank, then I would expect them to be in a battle for the number one spot throughout the season
3. Evil Midnight Bombers (1) – the Bombers remained consistent in their scoring, but it’s been three weeks now and they haven’t had a real explosion. I still feel that might have the best roster from top to bottom in the league, but the question of whether or not they can actually perform or if it’s all potential is starting to creep into my mind
4. Dreaded Mercenaries (5) – they lose their first of the season in a heartbreaker, but they do enough to move up another spot. While their roster overall might not have scored points that would make you think they deserve to move up, it was some of the moves that they made that I feel warrant the move upward. Getting Choice into the lineup, knowing that they had to sit Barber shows that the ownership of the Mercenaries is on the ball and serious about winning
5. Team S (4) – they slide down another spot in the rankings and are dead last in overall points. They still have AP, and now Pierre Thomas seems to be getting back into the swing of things. But, Owens had zero catches last week, the first time in 185 games that has happened. And the quarterback issue is still looming large. They are still clinging to a top five spot, but they are building up some downward momentum that might be difficult to stop
6. The Bloodsuckers (6) – they lose their game but hold steady in the rankings. Big Brother Manning is clearly the driving force on this team. They made a couple of costly coaching decisions this past week, sitting Randy Moss and starting Maroney over Fred Taylor. That was the difference in their game. However, they still managed 92 points and have their eyes set on the top five
7. Farva’s Shovelheads (7) – they hold steady at number seven, but those chances that they took at running back which were looking so promising a couple of weeks ago are starting to become a bit of a concern. They still have one of the best fantasy quarterbacks around, but it appears that there are starting to be a number of question marks. Whether or not they are able to stay in the top half of the league is going to be decided on how well they are able to handle the off weeks
8. Amateur Pharmacists (9) – the Pharmacists climbed up one spot thanks mostly to the performances from Santana Moss and Matt Schaub. Michael Turner still is not scoring as it would be expected, and I don’t think Santana is going to score significant points on a regular basis. Still, if Schaub continues performing well, Michael Turner picks it up and Ryan Grant steps up, they have the ability to make a move towards the top five
9. Mopar’s Marauders (8) – the Marauders drop down one spot, but they are still right in the thick of things.. Chris Johnson is going to be the catalyst for this team all season long. Without Johnson, the Marauders are a team that would be in fairly big trouble. With him, they have the potential to outscore anybody.
10. Damages (11) – they climb back into the top 10, but this might be a tough week for them coming up. Fitzgerald is off and Parker is currently listed as doubtful. They have a couple of quarterbacks who are putting up consistently good, but not outstanding, numbers. But they need more support if they are going to make any kind of run this season
11. Heavenly Rampagers (10) – the Rampagers slide down another spot and they must be on the verge of pressing the panic button when it comes to Tom Brady. If Brady does not have a return to his form of two seasons ago, then I’m not sure this team is going to be able to compete.. Ronnie Brown is a very solid number two running back for your fantasy team, unfortunately he is the number one guy here. And Harvin has all sorts of potential, but there’s no guarantee how he is going to perform over the course of the entire season… Overall, I believe that as goes Brady, so goes the Rampagers
12. Team Falk (12) – they get a big victory in a tiebreaker situation, but unlike the team they beat, there are some warning signs here. It was pretty widely publicized that Tomlinson was not going to play last week, but they still had him in the starting lineup and it almost cost them. Now, this might have been a conscious decision. This is a very thin league, meaning that because of the rules and roster size, no team can have very much depth on the bench. It’s very possible that they were aware that Tomlinson was not playing, but given the choice of dropping one of their other players, and very probably losing them to another team, and starting somebody that they knew was not going to play, they went with the long-term vision. If that’s the case, then I expect this team will be able to work their way up the power rankings over the course of the season. If it was just an oversight, then they might not ever break into the top 10
13. Legion of Doom (13) – frustration, thy name is Beanie! The signs all seemed to indicate a big game for the rookie last week, and for reasons unknown to anyone, he got two carries. On top of that throw in the continuing struggles of Eddie Royal, and you have a perfect recipe for a slow start the season. It’s going to take at least one of the rookie running backs to start breaking out for this team to have any chance of making a move this season
14. Mr. Al Davis (14) – OK, who else thinks Al Davis is a vampire? An insane, blood starved vampire? I’m just throwing that out there. As far as this team goes though, there might be some hope still. They erupt for 111 points and Jones-Drew was a very big part of it. I’m still not sold on their roster, but if Jones-Drew can start scoring again and Driver can keep playing as he has been, then it is not out of the realm of possibilities for this team to make a run
15. Shelby Township (16) – they break out with 118 points this week and get out of the bottom spot. But let’s be honest, you’re not going to score 52 points out of your tight end/defensive team/kicker combination on a regular basis.. There are some reasons for hope though, Steve Slaton showed some signs of life last week, Branden Jacobs remains consistent and Branden Marshall got in the end zone, even though he was not starting it’s still a good sign. If everything falls into place, this team still might move into the top 10
16. Gaul Village Asterix (15) – do we have a new Team Voodoo?? The Asterix are next to last in overall points, and really don’t seem to have any individuals on their team who are capable of working out, and yet there are 3-0! Other than their record, there’s very little in the way of good news for this team. Word out of Philadelphia is that Westbrook is going to be splitting carries the rest of the season with McCoy, and Westbrook was their main threat. But, as is the way of fantasy football, even though they are at the bottom of the power rankings and next to last in overall points, right now their playoff hopes are much brighter than the majority of the league
And there you have it. We are now at the beginning of the real grind of the fantasy football season. How many of the currently powerful teams will not be able to maintain their current levels of performance? How many of the lower ranked teams will be able to take advantage? We will start finding out this week